If you're an optimist, South African democracy is well established and solid enough to withstand the trauma of Nelson Mandela's passing.
Mandela's African National Congress has won all four national elections since the advent of democracy in 1994 though its popularity has gradually eroded. Headed by President Jacob Zuma, the ANC still commands a two-thirds majority in parliament before elections in 2014.
The ANC rules in an alliance with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party, of which Zuma was once a member. Communist and union officials contest elections under the ANC banner.
Zuma, South Africa's president since 2009, is a 71-year-old Zulu populist whose personal life is marked with controversy. He has four wives and 20 children. He was charged but not convicted of rape and corruption.
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John Kane-Berman, the head of the South African Institute of Race Relations, says there are enormous divisions within the ANC, and he predicts the party could eventually split.
"The ANC operates with Soviet-style democratic centralism," he says. "Zuma has restored the superiority of the party over the state that had faltered under (his predecessor) Thabo Mbeki."
New competitors have been injected into the political calculus. In June, anti-apartheid campaigner Mamphele Ramphele launched a new political party, Agang, a Sotho word for "Build." Ramphele, a doctor, says the ANC is corrupt and incompetent.
"Citizens have become helpless spectators of corruption, nepotism and competition for the front end positions at the feeding trough of public resources," she says.
Respected cleric and Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu, a fierce critic of today's ANC, has endorsed the new party.
Ramphele, a former vice-chancellor at the University of Cape Town, says the ANC has failed miserably on education as only 30% of blacks obtain the qualifications for university admission.
"In 20 years, the government has not addressed the key issue, which is the poor quality of teachers and standards," she says.
Zuma told parliament that the ANC is threatened neither by Agang nor a new party that may be established by firebrand nationalist Julius Malema, who was expelled from the ANC last year.
Perhaps the most tangible alternative to the ANC is the moderate Democratic Alliance headed by former investigative reporter Helen Zille.
Zille was formerly the mayor of Cape Town and since 2009 has been premier of the Western Cape, one of South Africa's nine provinces. Zille predicts the alliance will displace the ANC as the ruling party by 2019. Despite having won a record 17% of the vote in 2009, the Democratic Alliance suffers from its image as the party of white liberals.
ANC's affinity for a heavy state role in the economy has soured relations with the business community although the finance minister and central bank governor are highly respected.
Unemployment exceeds 20%; among youth, it exceeds 50%. GDP growth has slowed to less than 3%. The mining sector is under pressure from Cosatu unions pressing for pay increases two and three times greater than inflation. The South African currency, the rand, has fallen precipitously to more than 10 to the dollar.
The communists and Cosatu, modeled after Britain's Trade Union Congress, have resisted suggestions that South Africa embrace the Chinese model of low-wage manufacturing as a means of reducing unemployment.
Perhaps the greatest risk in the post-Mandela South Africa is a resumption of renewed racial and ethnic conflict. Researcher Anthea Jeffery says as many as 14,000 people died in the ethnic violence that stretched on for several years in the run-up to the elections in 1994. In recent years, there have been increasing assaults on white farmers.
Now that the moderating influence of Nelson Mandela is gone, the delicate social harmony of the past 20 years could be torn apart.
Barry D. Wood has been teaching and writing in South Africa for parts of the past four years and was a correspondent in Johannesburg for three years in the 1970s.
Mandela's African National Congress has won all four national elections since the advent of democracy in 1994 though its popularity has gradually eroded. Headed by President Jacob Zuma, the ANC still commands a two-thirds majority in parliament before elections in 2014.
The ANC rules in an alliance with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party, of which Zuma was once a member. Communist and union officials contest elections under the ANC banner.
Zuma, South Africa's president since 2009, is a 71-year-old Zulu populist whose personal life is marked with controversy. He has four wives and 20 children. He was charged but not convicted of rape and corruption.
.
John Kane-Berman, the head of the South African Institute of Race Relations, says there are enormous divisions within the ANC, and he predicts the party could eventually split.
"The ANC operates with Soviet-style democratic centralism," he says. "Zuma has restored the superiority of the party over the state that had faltered under (his predecessor) Thabo Mbeki."
New competitors have been injected into the political calculus. In June, anti-apartheid campaigner Mamphele Ramphele launched a new political party, Agang, a Sotho word for "Build." Ramphele, a doctor, says the ANC is corrupt and incompetent.
"Citizens have become helpless spectators of corruption, nepotism and competition for the front end positions at the feeding trough of public resources," she says.
Respected cleric and Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu, a fierce critic of today's ANC, has endorsed the new party.
Ramphele, a former vice-chancellor at the University of Cape Town, says the ANC has failed miserably on education as only 30% of blacks obtain the qualifications for university admission.
"In 20 years, the government has not addressed the key issue, which is the poor quality of teachers and standards," she says.
Zuma told parliament that the ANC is threatened neither by Agang nor a new party that may be established by firebrand nationalist Julius Malema, who was expelled from the ANC last year.
Perhaps the most tangible alternative to the ANC is the moderate Democratic Alliance headed by former investigative reporter Helen Zille.
Zille was formerly the mayor of Cape Town and since 2009 has been premier of the Western Cape, one of South Africa's nine provinces. Zille predicts the alliance will displace the ANC as the ruling party by 2019. Despite having won a record 17% of the vote in 2009, the Democratic Alliance suffers from its image as the party of white liberals.
ANC's affinity for a heavy state role in the economy has soured relations with the business community although the finance minister and central bank governor are highly respected.
Unemployment exceeds 20%; among youth, it exceeds 50%. GDP growth has slowed to less than 3%. The mining sector is under pressure from Cosatu unions pressing for pay increases two and three times greater than inflation. The South African currency, the rand, has fallen precipitously to more than 10 to the dollar.
The communists and Cosatu, modeled after Britain's Trade Union Congress, have resisted suggestions that South Africa embrace the Chinese model of low-wage manufacturing as a means of reducing unemployment.
Perhaps the greatest risk in the post-Mandela South Africa is a resumption of renewed racial and ethnic conflict. Researcher Anthea Jeffery says as many as 14,000 people died in the ethnic violence that stretched on for several years in the run-up to the elections in 1994. In recent years, there have been increasing assaults on white farmers.
Now that the moderating influence of Nelson Mandela is gone, the delicate social harmony of the past 20 years could be torn apart.
Barry D. Wood has been teaching and writing in South Africa for parts of the past four years and was a correspondent in Johannesburg for three years in the 1970s.
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